Probability in Science

Expressive Probability Models in Science

The paper is a brief summary of an invited talk given at the Discovery Science conference. The principal points are as follows: rst, that probability theory forms the basis for connecting hypotheses and data; second, that the expressive power of the probability models used in scientiic theory formation has expanded signiicantly; and nally, that still further expansion is required to tackle many...

Probability-one homotopies in computational science

Probability-one homotopy algorithms are a class of methods for solving nonlinear systems of equations that, under mild assumptions, are globally convergent for a wide range of problems in science and engineering. Convergence theory, robust numerical algorithms, and production quality mathematical software exist for general nonlinear systems of equations, and special cases such as Brouwer fixed ...

Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

The research programme will build on the work of various specialists – many of whom will attend the programme – on the main applications of probability, statistics and Bayesian methods to forensic science. One of the main goals of the proposed research semester is for the participants to produce a consensual set of guidelines (extending the recent Practitioner Guides issued by the Royal Statist...

FOS: Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science

While there have been dramatic advances in the range and scale of forensic techniques used to help solve legal cases, the way that the probative value of forensic evidence is presented in courts is rudimentary and often flawed. In particular, where probative value is presented in probabilistic and statistical terms there have been numerous instances of misunderstanding leading to miscarriages o...

PROBABILITY IS SYMMETRY On Foundations of the Science of Probability